美中不足的是和尚每次都是收市之后，才出来发布今天的交易结果。有时候会配一张图，讲解今天的进点出点。更多时候只是寥寥数语，俨如一张胜利简报：

7/1/2005

Day 23 Trading Results
Total profit for today = 1,757,250
Total profit for the month = 8,343,713
Total profit for entire campaign = 8,405,833

Total number of trades = 21
Total number of profits = 18
Total number of losses = 3

这里和尚大致是说，今天他总共交易21次，赢18输3，赚了170多万。具体的进出点，进场出场的理由，一概不知。但我们能怪他吗，和尚早说了，这是"for personal record and educational purpose only"。我们能指望随便得到他的妙决心法？

除了简报，和尚还不时发表对市场的评论，有时也谈论跟交易有关的哲理，还推荐一些他欣赏的网页。这些东东比他的交易记录有趣多了。就连和尚的批评家也不得不承认这些东西的价值。红烧肉当时更是抱着崇敬的心情，仔细琢磨了半天。比如和尚最推崇的“Learning to Trade: The Psychology of Expertise”，红烧肉更是读了好几遍。

7月1日后，和尚再也没有贴交易记录。正当众人议论纷纷之际，过了两天和尚趁热打铁，在博客上宣布了一个mentor program，寻找学生共建导师庙 (mentoring monastery)。又吸引了大家的眼球。原文如下：

The purpose of the mentoring monastery idea is to find potential equity partners who can trade my method in my hedge fund in which my money is invested. I am not about to hand over my money to a trader unless they can prove to me they can trade their own money and compound it using my trading method. Hence, the real time signal calls during phase 1.

If you have read the introduction to this blog you know there is no free lunch with alcoholic beverages here. If you are not interested in putting your own money at risk then I am not interested in working with you as a partner. I am looking for equity partners, not spectators with an axe to grind who want free real time signals for entertainment and gossip purposes.

有感兴趣的人向和尚询问细节，得到的答案是这样的：

成为和尚的门徒门槛是蛮高的，首先你要读和尚博客上的所有文章和链接，尤其是前面提到的“The Psychology of Expertise”。其次你现在是全职炒股者，而且能够通过炒股维生。最后你必须起码有$15000，其中$10000是表达你的诚意，向和尚买一张门票进入phase 1的价钱。另外$5000是你的起始资金。

";Phase 1"(第一阶段)中，和尚会给门徒发实时信号买卖ES，刚开始$5000只够买一个合约，但和尚保证：第一个月之内，$5000就能腾云驾雾涨到10万，就象他在PMTC中公开演示的结果一样。这样第二个月，交易就会以50个ES合约为单位，而第二个月尾，帐户将达到60万。和尚挑选5个门徒进入第二阶段。

第二阶段中，和尚会对众门徒进行一对一训练，传授交易方法。同时每个人把第一阶段累积的60万放到公司的共同帐户下，此公司由和尚和众门徒共同拥有。门徒每人占10%，和尚占50% 。

第三阶段，大家共同交易公司帐户，5年内把公司帐户炒到上百亿。

第一阶段从7/11/2005开始。

有趣的事情发生了，这个自称发表博客是为了"personal record and educational purpose"的和尚，竟然开始向大家要钱了？这个自称一天赚上百万的和尚，竟然会向大家要$10000作为传授他妙法的价钱？

更有趣的是有人要求飞过去和他面谈，他推脱说宁愿在电话里谈。有人建议用escrow transaction，把一万美元存在第三方帐户下，“货”到付款。也被他拒绝了。

谣言尘起之际，和尚的博客居然关闭了，在7/9的网页上，和尚写道：

"I am sorry to say this is the last post you will see on this website. "

没有解释。他许诺过的审计结果，也眇无音信。

我们可以猜测和尚当初开博客的目的就是为了这个"mentoring monastery"，现在招到了他要的门徒，从7/11开始专心致志搞他的phase I，所以无瑕更新博客，只有把它关闭。

或者我们可以猜测和尚当初开博客的目的是为了骗钱，现在面对网上铺天盖地的责骂，不得不打消计划，偃旗息鼓。

哪种猜测更接近真实，谁也不知道，唯一知道真相的和尚，从此再也未出现为自己说一句话。

相反，半年之后跳出来的，是一些自称参加过和尚的"mentoring program"的门徒。他们的意见压倒性的决定了大众对和尚的评价：和尚是一个彻头彻尾恬不知耻的骗子。

在elitetrader.com网页上，活跃着这样两三个人，其中ID名为“floortradr542”的一位trader，看起来最有可信性，但红烧肉对他的采信度也只有50%。他一开始以为和尚辩护zhe者的面目出现，自称他用$5000参加了和尚两周的mentor program。他认为和尚对市场有相当深厚的了解，本领不错，就是脾气暴躁，发生什么差错就抱怨学生，怨天尤人，他可以指出学生的缺点，学生却不可以指出他身上同样的缺点。他按照和尚的信号交易了两周ES，不但没有赚钱，反而亏了一点。

下面是floortrader542发表于2006年3月的一系列关于和尚的“近距离报导”。真实与否，我让你们自己判断。

Here's an update to that Market Monk character for those who are still interested. Recap: He posted a blog last spring where he detailed taking $5000 compounded to millions trading the emini S&;P within a short amount of time.

Market Monk is named David P. He does know his stuff but he is an extremely difficult individual to work with. I recently paid $5000 for a two week "mentoring" with him. He originally wanted $10,000 but that was too much to risk on an unstable personality. We spoke over the phone on Skype while he made market calls. I was lead to believe I'd profit a minimum of 100% during those two weeks.

I not only NOT profited but I am down from where I started. Not by much but still. My greed got the better of me.

The mentorship might have continued longer but David is a hypocrite of sorts: he points out your personality flaws under the guise of good training but God forbid you point out the SAME flaws in him. He becomes bratty as a first grader who doesn't get enough attention at home. Lesson learned.

Trading in an individual pursuit; no matter what the gurus or say or what one may want to believe.

As much as I want to call him names, I have to defend him. First, I contacted him. He made no solicitation towards me. He admits he has no patience and is not a good teacher. Second, he is literally terrified of the world. He is the most miserable man I have ever met.

This is what I learned: his method is highly subjective. he uses eight 20" monitors to trade patterns. I have only a single 17" so I had to visualize most of what he is saying. He uses Gann and Fibonacci S&R levels to find clusters. The placing of these levels is the most subjective. His $5000 advice? Experiment for myself. I thought I was paying him to tell me where???
I know better. It's funny how one's judgement is impaired when one is desperate and a bit greedy.

The bottom line is David created his highly effective method when the S&;P was highly volitile and it hit all his "tag" points consistently. In short, the S&P was predictible and highly tradeable. By his own admission volitility has dried up considerably. Whereas the S&P once has 20 to 30 point swing days, it now has 5 to 10 on its best days. Alas, the S&P emini is now a scalpers market.

Funny thing is, the emini Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 DOES hit his signals regularly. He promised to call signals for said markets but never did. He is married to the S&P and refuses to go where the action is simply because he wants to trade huge contract lots. He fels the S&P is the only market that will support a single 1000 contract order reversing on 2000 contracts to take a countertrend trade.

He does live with a woman (!) and seems pu**y whipped to the nth degree. Asking him to trade the Russell was like asking him to cheat on his girlfriend. As a 20+ year veteran of the markets, he still makes rookie mistakes. Most notably the emotional abuse of himself. When he missed an "obvious" signal which was a winner, he harped on it for 30 minutes straight calling himself an idiot. I wasn't paying him $400 per day to be HIS therapist.

In short, I feel his lessons are easily worth $2500; not the $10,000 he thinks its worth. Based on his blog, I thought he could call market turns with pinpoint accuracy. Market Monk had the grail. Easily worth $10,000 (total price)

后记：抱歉这不是一篇有关交易系统的文章，不过红烧肉前两天无意中看到market monk的一些真相文章，忍不住好奇做了些研究，冲动之下，就有了这篇东西。

当年是在老股飞的发哥推荐之下，我开始关注和尚的。不胜感谢。如今发哥也象和尚一样仙踪渺茫，希望发哥能早日再现江湖，游戏人生，此记。

红烧肉，12/26/2006

引用：

1) Market Monk's Present Moment Trading Campaign (http://marketmonk.blogs.com/pmtc/, 已关闭)
2) Market Monk Thread on elitetrader.com(http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/sh ... 6&pagenumber=1)
3) Learning to Trade: The Psychology of Expertise (http://www.actionforex.com/artic ... rtise_20050109602/)



野和尚拉普拉斯的叶子

由於工作紧张的原因，红烧肉不得不缩短写作计划，把原定的三篇合为一篇，炒个大杂烩。读者万万不可认为，以下几个交易系统比以前评点的交易系统差。野和尚各位应该会饶恕红烧肉的懒惰。

另，交易系统实战评点这一系列已接近尾声，红烧肉可能会写个尾章，但也要看时间上是否容许。

1) 野和尚的随机游走系统：(红烧肉注：野和尚，我说的不对的，出来吱一声)

据我的理解，野狐狸的系统有两种策略，一种是dCAT (Dollar Cost Averaging Trading), 用于交易ETF，其基本原理就是赌某ETF不会永远跌，跌到0。 步骤是：(引自野和尚原贴 http://www.goofiz.com/forum/view ... a251edb3a07e4e2a31)

1. 如果你没有股票，买一万块钱股票.
2. 如果这股票从上次买后掉了6%, 买一万块钱这个股票.
3. 如果这股票从上次买后涨了6%, 把上次买的卖了

野和尚要面子，没说清一点，就是假如你买后股票连跌了N个6%，你就要加N次码，每次用同样多的钱。这就是野和尚名言“永不止损”的来源。红烧肉一再骂他误导，因为这种搞法炒ETF可能还行，股票则万万不可，真有股票跌到零的。还有，这系统对资金要求比较高，对追加买入的间隔也要求准确，如果间隔太密，资金提前用光你就傻眼了。这里6%只是打个比方，真正操作中，应该看历史上某ETF最多连跌了多少，比如说QQQQ最多连跌过50%，

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